Week in Review • INTELLIGENCE BRIEF • March 28, 2026

TOP STORIES

Merck Deploys $6.7B for CML Asset as Keytruda Patent Cliff Looms—Largest Oncology Bet Since Prometheus

Merck will acquire Terns Pharmaceuticals in an all-cash transaction valued at $6.7 billion, gaining an undisclosed chronic myeloid leukemia asset. The deal represents Merck's largest acquisition since its $10.8 billion Prometheus purchase in 2023 and signals accelerated portfolio diversification ahead of Keytruda's U.S. loss of exclusivity in 2028. The premium paid suggests confidence in competing against established tyrosine kinase inhibitors from Novartis (Tasigna), Pfizer (Bosulif), and Bristol Myers Squibb (Sprycel) in a CML market where treatment paradigms have remained relatively stable since second-generation TKI approvals.

Competitive implications: Novartis, Pfizer, and Bristol Myers Squibb face a well-capitalized new entrant in CML, where they have maintained stable market positions with second- and third-generation TKIs. The $6.7 billion valuation implies Merck sees differentiation potential beyond existing resistance profiles or tolerability advantages. Companies pursuing earlier-line CML indications or novel mechanisms may face renewed competitive pressure if Merck's asset demonstrates efficacy in treatment-naive or intolerant populations. The deal also signals that large pharma acquirers remain willing to deploy multi-billion-dollar capital for hematologic oncology assets despite sector-wide funding constraints.

Key risks: Success depends on the Terns asset's clinical stage, differentiation versus established TKIs, and ability to secure favorable positioning in NCCN guidelines and payer formularies where existing therapies have strong entrenchment. Integration risk and Merck's track record in commercial execution outside immuno-oncology will determine ROI.

Biopharma Financing Drops 20% as IPOs Hit Decade Low—Capital Concentrates in Fewer Late-Stage Bets

Global biopharma financing fell 20% in 2025 with IPO proceeds reaching the lowest level in ten years, according to IQVIA analysis. China's IPO market was particularly affected, hitting a ten-year low alongside the broader contraction. The decline reversed post-pandemic capital recovery and signals a shift toward larger concentrated bets on late-stage assets with clear proof-of-concept rather than broad portfolio funding across early discovery programs. Venture and crossover investors are reserving capital for later-stage opportunities, narrowing paths to non-dilutive financing for companies with unproven platforms or pre-clinical pipelines.

Competitive implications: Large diversified biotechs with balance sheet capacity gain leverage in M&A negotiations and licensing discussions as smaller competitors face capital constraints. Merck's $6.7 billion Terns acquisition and Novartis' $2 billion Excellergy deal exemplify how established players can acquire late-stage assets at premiums that would be impossible for venture-backed buyers to match in the current environment. Platform companies without near-term clinical catalysts face the steepest funding challenges, creating bifurcated valuations between asset-rich and discovery-stage organizations. The trend favors companies with diversified therapeutic focus and near-term revenue potential over single-asset, single-indication biotechs.

Key risks: A prolonged capital drought could force portfolio pruning and asset sales at distressed valuations, potentially consolidating innovation into fewer large players and reducing therapeutic diversity. Extended timelines to liquidity may strain venture fund return profiles and reduce future deployment into early-stage biotech.

Novartis Acquires Excellergy for $2B to Replace Xolair Ahead of Biosimilar Wave—Coherus, Biocon Window Narrows

Novartis will pay up to $2 billion in upfront and milestone payments to acquire Excellergy and its next-generation anti-IgE candidate, positioning the company to defend its allergy franchise as Xolair faces biosimilar competition beginning with Celltrion's Omlyclo, expected to launch in September 2026. The deal secures a potential successor to Xolair, which generated over $1 billion in annual sales for Novartis according to company filings prior to biosimilar entry, with claims the new asset could deliver faster and more complete control of allergic conditions than the current standard. Per BioPharma Dive, the transaction follows Novartis' pattern of acquiring late-stage assets to offset loss of exclusivity erosion in its immunology franchise.

Competitive implications: Coherus, Biocon, and other biosimilar manufacturers preparing Xolair biosimilars face an incumbent with a next-generation product already in development, potentially limiting their market window if Excellergy's asset reaches approval before biosimilar share stabilizes. The move also positions Novartis against Regeneron and Sanofi's Dupixent franchise in chronic spontaneous urticaria and allergic asthma, where IgE-targeting approaches compete with IL-4/IL-13 inhibition. Companies pursuing novel allergy mechanisms will need to demonstrate clear differentiation on speed of response or completeness of symptom control to compete with an improved anti-IgE profile backed by Novartis' commercial infrastructure.

Key risks: Excellergy's asset stage and mechanism details remain undisclosed, creating uncertainty over development timelines and differentiation claims. If biosimilar erosion accelerates faster than the next-generation candidate advances, Novartis may face a revenue gap in its allergy portfolio.

REGULATORY & APPROVALS

• Denali Therapeutics secured accelerated approval for Avlayah (tividenofusp) in Hunter syndrome, becoming the third product cleared under the Commissioner's National Priority Voucher pilot program; the approval is contingent on confirmatory trial data to verify clinical benefit. The decision signals FDA may be recalibrating accelerated pathway risk tolerance following congressional and patient advocacy pressure, potentially easing the path for other rare disease sponsors facing heightened scrutiny.
• Rocket Pharmaceuticals received accelerated approval for kryfolt-d (RP-L201), a lentiviral gene therapy for leukocyte adhesion deficiency type I, subject to post-marketing confirmatory requirements, after resolving manufacturing issues that led to an earlier Complete Response Letter, Endpoints News reported—marking the first approved therapy for LAD-I, an ultra-rare primary immunodeficiency.
• FDA issued a warning letter to ImmunityBio for false or misleading promotional claims about Anktiva in a TV ad and podcast episode, requiring corrective actions within 15 business days and potentially delaying future submissions during the critical commercial launch period for the bladder cancer treatment approved in 2024.

CLINICAL DATA

• AstraZeneca reported positive Phase 3 results for tozorakimab, an investigational IL-33 antibody, across the OBERON and TITANIA COPD trials, using an IL-33-targeting mechanism where Roche's astegolimab and Sanofi's itepekimab previously reported mixed or negative results, positioning the company to potentially expand its respiratory franchise beyond asthma into a biologic-limited market segment.
• Takeda released Phase 3 results for zasocitinib (TYK2 inhibitor), acquired through its $4 billion purchase of Nimbus Therapeutics, positioning the drug for FDA filing in psoriasis where it will compete against established oral and injectable therapies from Bristol Myers Squibb and Johnson & Johnson, MedCity News reported.
• Wave Life Sciences' WVE-006, targeting muscle preservation in obesity, failed to meet its primary endpoint in a Phase 2 trial, while Kodiak Sciences achieved positive results in a second Phase 3 trial for its vision loss treatment, strengthening its regulatory case in the anti-VEGF retinal disease market.

DEALS & PARTNERSHIPS

• Otsuka Pharmaceutical will pay $700 million upfront plus up to $525 million in milestones to acquire Transcend Therapeutics, gaining access to TSND-201 (methylone), a non-hallucinogenic MDMA analog for PTSD granted FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation in July 2025, and extending its CNS franchise beyond established antipsychotics, BioPharma Dive reported.
• Gilead Sciences is acquiring Ouro Medicines for up to $2.2 billion, gaining T-cell engager therapies for autoimmune disease and expanding its pipeline as regional M&A activity diverges from Western cost-discipline priorities, PharmExec reported.

BUSINESS & FINANCE

• Takeda launched a restructuring program targeting $1.3 billion in annual savings under incoming CEO Julie Kim, earmarking funds to finance upcoming product launches and late-stage pipeline development as patent expiries and generic competition erode legacy revenue streams.
• Alnylam outlined a strategy to position Amvuttra as the revenue leader in transthyretin amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy, projecting a U.S. treated patient population exceeding 75,000 by 2030, though success depends on achieving label expansion from its current ATTR polyneuropathy indication and outcompeting Pfizer's $3+ billion Vyndaqel franchise.
• Novo Nordisk appointed Poul Weihrauch, CEO of Mars, as a board observer (Seeking Alpha) to strengthen consumer-facing capabilities as it expands GLP-1 obesity and diabetes products beyond traditional pharma channels, signaling a strategic shift toward direct-to-consumer tactics more common in consumer packaged goods.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

India Generic Semaglutide Rollout Tests Novo's Pricing Power in Emerging Markets

India's drug regulator approved generic versions of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, flooding the market with GLP-1 options amid chaotic rollout conditions. The competitive pressure in India—a major growth market for diabetes therapies—will test whether Novo can maintain pricing and share against low-cost generics while Eli Lilly simultaneously expands tirzepatide access in the region. The outcome will shape pricing dynamics across other emerging markets where GLP-1 patent protection remains limited.

White House-Pharma Drug Pricing Negotiations Signal Potential Legislative Push

The White House is holding private meetings with pharmaceutical companies to build industry support for drug pricing legislation, per STAT (see also The Hill), reflecting an election-year focus on affordability. If legislation advances with industry buy-in, it could reshape reimbursement dynamics and margin structures across branded drugs, particularly for companies with Medicare-heavy revenue mix and limited pipeline depth. The approach suggests the administration may be seeking narrower negotiated reforms rather than confrontational unilateral action, though no bill text or industry commitments are yet public.

NIH Foreign Partnership Restrictions Widen Academic-Industry Gap in Early Discovery

A survey found 25% of NIH-funded scientists reported significant research disruption from restrictions on foreign subawards, per STAT News (see also Science/AAAS), constraining access to specialized capabilities in China, Europe, and other regions that have historically supported U.S. academic drug discovery. For biopharma, the disruption may slow early-stage pipeline sourcing from NIH-funded institutions as U.S. labs rebuild domestic infrastructure. Companies with established in-house discovery platforms or European academic networks may face less disruption than those dependent on NIH-funded U.S. collaborators for target validation and chemical matter.